Jeff Norman attracts attention to Figure 1 in a brand new Mannian tirade, a variation of Mannâ€™s stump speech wherein he, as typical, tries to blame his own errors and methods (the censored listing, verification r2 of 0, upside-down Mann, hide the decline) on right-wing pursuits. Amusingly, his new Figure 1 unapologetically splices proxy and instrumental data, a difficulty that ties to a central issue in Mann v National Review et al. First, here is Figure 1, entitled â€œHockey stick graphâ€ of rising international temperatures. Sharp-eyed readers will notice that the Figure goes to 1998 or so, and that it grafts the instrumental record after 1902 onto the proxy report earlier than 1901, with the grafting not mentioned within the caption. CA readers can even remember Mannâ€™s famous and vituperative denial that any climate scientist had ever spliced proxy and instrumental data in one of the earliest and most cited Real Climate posts Myth vs.
Fact Regarding the â€œHockey Stickâ€. Whatever the rationale for the divergence, it would appear to counsel that the apply of grafting the thermometer document onto a proxy temperature record – as I imagine was executed in the case of the â€˜hockey stickâ€™ – is dubious to say the least. No researchers on this subject have ever, to our data, â€œgrafted the thermometer report ontoâ€ any reconstrution. It is considerably disappointing to seek out this specious declare (which we normally discover originating from industry-funded local weather disinformation web sites) showing in this discussion boardâ€¦ Often, as in the comparisons we show on this site, the instrumental report (which extends to present) is shown along with the reconstructions, and clearly distinguished from them (e.g. highlighted in red as here). When Climategate broke, the â€œtrickâ€ electronic mail clearly attracted a lot attention. The primary explication of the trick email was Jean Sâ€™ Climate Audit publish on November 20, 2009, a post which clearly demonstrated the grafting of instrumental and proxy data in the WMO 1999 diagram that was the topic of the trick e mail.
Jean S also in contrast this technique to the splicing of instrumental and proxy knowledge in building of the smoothed MBH98 and MBH99 reconstructions, a way that had been beforehand reverse engineered by UC right here., but confirmed by the admission in the email that that they had used â€œMikeâ€™s Nature trick of including in the true tempsâ€. In MBH98 and MBH99, Mann pared the hybrid easy again to 1980, whereas the WMO1999 diagram continued the smooth to 1998). The impact of Mannâ€™s hybrid smooth was that the smoothed reconstruction closed with a rhetorical uptick, quite than the downtick that will have resulted using the identical smoothing approach on proxy data alone. Jean S acidly contrasted the laborious proof with Mannâ€™s prior denial of ever splicing instrumental and proxy knowledge. In some earlier work although (Mann et al, 1999), the boundary condition for the smoothed curve (at 1980) was determined by padding with the imply of the subsequent knowledge (taken from the instrumental report).
On November 24, 2009, in a press assertion, one of Mannâ€™s coauthors within the WMO 1999 graphic, Phil Jones of CRU, admitted the splicing within the WMO 1999 diagram, but Mann didn’t correct his previous denials. In the original Simberg article, underneath the word â€œdata manipulationâ€, Simberg included a hyperlink to the Climate Audit article entitled â€œMikeâ€™s Nature Trickâ€. Although lack of absolute malice virtually actually represents the easiest way of deciding Mann v National Review et al, in U.S. Hyperlinks are a recognized method of disclosing source info. CEI argued (very convincingly for my part) that their use of the term â€œdata manipulationâ€ was a supportable interpretation of the details set out in the hyperlinked Climate Audit submit, Mikeâ€™s Nature Trick, and that these facts have been â€œuncontestedâ€. CEI included the Climate Audit submit â€œMikeâ€™s Nature Trickâ€ as Exhibit 6(e) of the unique CEI memorandum and is included in the joint attachments to the Appeals Court. In response, Williams and Mann said that the Climate Audit article preceded the NSF exoneration.
There’s, nonetheless, no evidence in the NSF report that they thought of the problems set out within the Climate Audit article. Williams and Mann also argued that the assertion that there was â€œsupport within the articles hyperlinked to Mr. Simbergâ€™s original put up is just with out meritâ€ and that â€œMr. Simberg distorts the material he supposedly relies uponâ€. Williams and Mann conspicuously did not rebut or contest the â€œfactsâ€ set out in Exhibit 6(e), Mikeâ€™s Nature Trick, an analysis, which, to my data, remains unrebutted to this present day. Is the term â€œdata manipulationâ€ a supportable interpretation of the splicing of instrumental and proxy data in the WMO 1999 diagram and the MBH98 and MBH99 smoothed reconstructions? Of course, it’s. In Mannâ€™s most current transient, Mann claimed that any criticism of his research as â€œmisleadingâ€ was â€œdemonstrably falseâ€ as a result of Mann had supposedly â€œclearly labeledâ€ each instrumental and reconstructed temperatures on a graphic – as though that were the one metric on which his analysis could be â€œmisleadingâ€. SKS has even attempted to re-frame Mikeâ€™s Nature trick as the strategy of clearly labeling observations and estimates in a graphic – a standard and commonplace method that existed long before Mann and one distinctly not noticed within the WMO 1999 graphic. Or in the brand new Mann 2015 graphic, the place instrumental and reconstructed temperatures are in barely different shades of blue, but not labeled, not to mention clearly labeled. Most significantly, any suggestion that Dr. Mannâ€™s analysis is deceptive is demonstrably false.